insu昀케cient government responses, and perva- whereas those that fail will inspire competitors sive technology to organize protests rapidly. or demands for alternative models. Democra- cies will also have the advantage of drawing Political Violence, Internal Con昀氀ict, and legitimacy from the fairness and inclusivity of State Collapse. During the next two decades, their political systems—attributes harder to increased volatility is likely to lead to the achieve in authoritarian systems. breakdown of political order and outbreak of political violence in numerous countries, par- Democracy Eroding ticularly in the developing world. As of 2020, The challenges governments face suggest 1.8 billion people—or 23 percent of the world’s there is a high risk that an ongoing trend in population—lived in fragile contexts with weak erosion of democratic governance will con- governance, security, social, environmental, tinue during at least the next decade and and economic conditions, according to an perhaps longer. This trend has been wide- OECD estimate. This number is projected spread—seen in established, wealthy, liberal to grow to 2.2 billion—or 26 percent of the democracies as well as less mature partial world’s population—by 2030. These states are democracies. Key democratic traits, including mostly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, freedom of expression and the press, judicial followed by the Middle East and North Africa, independence, and protections for minori- Asia, and Latin America. These areas will also ties, are deteriorating globally with countries face an increasing combination of conditions, sliding in the direction of greater authoritari- including climate change, food insecurity, anism. The democracy promotion non-govern- youthful and growing populations (in Africa), mental organization (NGO) Freedom House and rapid urbanization, that will exacerbate reported that 2020 was the 15th consecutive state fragility. Outbreaks of political violence year of decline in political rights and civil liber- ties. Another respected measure of democracy or internal con昀氀ict are not limited to these fragile states, however, and are likely to ap- worldwide, Varieties of Democracy, indicates pear even in historically more stable countries that as of 2020, 34 percent of the world’s pop- when political volatility grows severe. ulation were living in countries where dem- ocratic governance was declining, compared DEMOCRACY UNDER PRESSURE AND with 4 percent who were living in countries AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES ALSO VULNERABLE that were becoming more democratic. This volatile political climate creates vulner- Several internal and external forces are driving abilities for all types of governments, from this democratic erosion. In some Western established liberal democracies to closed democracies, public distrust of the capabil- authoritarian systems. Adaptability and per- ities and policies of established parties and formance are likely to be key factors in the elites, as well as anxieties about economic relative rise and fall of democratic and author- dislocations, status reversals, and immigra- itarian governance during the next 20 years. tion, have fueled the rise of illiberal leaders Governments that harness new opportunities, who are undermining democratic norms and adapt to rising pressures, manage growing institutions and civil liberties. In newer democ- social fragmentation, and deliver security and racies—mostly in the developing world—that economic prosperity for their populations transitioned from authoritarian rule in the will preserve or strengthen their legitimacy, A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 83