at the same time. Most high-skill workers half migrated to high income countries for probably will continue to bene昀椀t from work- higher pay and to send remittances home. The place technology, while middle-skill workers fastest growth in emigration begins at around doing repetitive tasks that can be automated $4,000 per capita GDP, the point at which peo- will face declining wages and job losses. Even ple have reached lower-middle-income and some workers in high paid professions may can a昀昀ord to travel, and then begins to slow see their earnings challenged by arti昀椀cial when per capita GDP reaches $10,000-$12,000 intelligence (AI) and machine learning. House- where people are nearing the World Bank’s hold debt has already soared across advanced de昀椀nition of high income, making employment economies in recent years because of these in- opportunities at home more attractive. come strains and higher costs for healthcare, Looking forward, rapid population growth al- housing, and education. most certainly will add to existing push factors MIGRATION: PEOPLE ON THE MOVE in Sub-Saharan Africa, while many other devel- Demographic trends and economic incentives oping countries are nearing the end of peak will continue to drive large-scale migration emigration. The population in the middle-in- during the next two decades. Although there come migration window of $4,000 to $10,000- is little certainty about the level of migration $12,000 peaked around 2010 for several regions, including Latin America, Central Asia, as government policies 昀氀uctuate, the push and and parts of Eastern Europe. East Asia, South- pull factors for cross-border movements of east Asia, and South Asia are also nearing or people will endure globally—feeding debates past the strongest period for this income push in destination countries over migration and factor, but the percent of the population in aggravating social divisions in some areas. Sub-Saharan Africa in this income window will The past 20 years saw a large increase in continue to rise during the next 20 years. cross-border migration, not only in absolute numbers but also as a percent of the global Greater need for workers in aging countries population. More than 270 million persons is a growing pull factor in European and Asian in 2020 were living in a country to which countries. European countries had the largest they had migrated, 100 million more than in total number of cross-border immigrants at 2000, representing an increase of more than the end of 2019 at nearly 70 million, according half a percent of the global population. Most to 2020 UN statistics. One-third came from migrants left their homes to pursue better Eastern Europe, which had a working-age economic prospects, but tens of millions were population that was peaking just as advanced 昀氀eeing con昀氀ict, crime, religious and social European economies were beginning to repression, and natural disasters. rapidly age. Aging European countries and Japan are expanding policies that provide visas For the vast majority of migrants who are for workers. workers, migration 昀氀ows clearly re昀氀ect wage di昀昀erentials between countries—the 昀氀ows During the coming 20 years, people 昀氀eeing di- are from smaller, middle-income economies sasters and con昀氀ict will continue to contribute to larger, high-income economies. Almost to migration 昀氀ows. UN and NGO data show two-thirds of migrants in 2019 originated from that domestic civil and political turmoil have middle-income economies, and more than pushed 80 million people out of their homes A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 27