as of yearend 2019, of which about a third of internal armed con昀氀ict. East Asia and Latin have migrated to other countries. America will have a median age above 30, sug- gesting a potential for greater social stability. BROADER IMPLICATIONS AND DISRUPTIONS Such populations also have strong preferenc- These demographic and human development es for democracy; where authoritarian re- trends will put pressure on governments to gimes remain, instability from so-called color increase public investment and manage immi- revolutions is likely to persist. In addition, gration, lead to instability in some countries, in in countries with fast growing and youthful some ways contribute to a rising Asia, and add populations, the growing gap between the ex- to the agenda of already strained international pectations of growing urban cohorts and their development institutions. governments’ ability to provide for their edu- Setbacks for Women, Children, and cation, healthcare, and job opportunities has Minorities. The current pandemic exempli- the potential to increase political instability. In such countries, recruitment to radical extrem- 昀椀es the fragility of progress against poverty in some regions and the potential for regres- ist movements will be a major risk as well. sion for women, minority groups, and others Increased Debate Over Migration. Immi- lower in economic, political, and social stat- grants can help developed economies miti- ure. Although so far mortality in low-income gate the downsides of an aging population by countries, outside Latin America, has been improving economic productivity, providing lower than in the advanced economies, the services, and expanding the tax base. How- economic impacts have been severe. Beyond ever, countervailing pressures such as strong overwhelmed healthcare systems and the cultural preferences for maintaining national negative impact on income for millions of the identity and ethnic homogeneity could con- near poor, broader disruptions include lack of tinue to fuel an antimigrant backlash in many or limited education and the diversion of med- developed countries and increasingly in some ical resources from other priorities, including developing and middle-income countries vaccinations and maternal health. with declining workforces, such as China. As a Growing Pressure For Public Investment. result, many are likely to choose technological Growing populations, especially middle classes innovation and automation and limit migration in developing countries, are putting increased to highly skilled labor. Within and between pressure on governments for the provision of countries, debates and division will continue public goods, such as a昀昀ordable housing, ed- over how much migration to allow and how to ucation, healthcare, and infrastructure. Poorly control 昀氀ows. governed urban areas, especially those with Some Shifts Could Bene昀椀t A Rising East. access to infrastructure such as international Many developing countries in Asia will either ports or airports, are also ideal habitats for gain potential advantages from demographic organized crime syndicates. trends or are relatively well positioned to over- Double-Edged Sword For Political Stability. come demographic headwinds. As a result per Older populations tend to be less violent and capita incomes and human development lev- ideologically extreme, thus reducing the risk els probably will rise more in Asia than in any other region. Most Asian countries will con- 28 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040