and redistribute. Material power, measured by be central to a country’s security and global the size of a nation’s economy, military, and in昀氀uence, but going forward, cutting edge population, and its technological development arti昀椀cial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and level, will provide the necessary foundation for data-driven decisionmaking will provide states exercising power, but will be insu昀케cient for with a range of advantages for econom- securing and maintaining favorable outcomes. ic growth, manufacturing, healthcare, and In an even more hyperconnected world, pow- societal resiliency. With these technologies, er will include applying technology, human there will be a 昀椀rst mover advantage, enabling capital, information, and network position states and nonstate actors to shape the views to modify and shape the behavior of other and decisionmaking of populations, to gain actors, including states, corporations, and information advantages over competitors, and populations. The attractiveness of a country’s to better prepare for future shocks. entertainment, sports, tourism, and educa- Human Capital. Favorable demographics, tional institutions will also remain important including a strong working-age population, drivers of its in昀氀uence. As global challenges universal basic education, and a concentra- such as extreme weather events and human- tion of science, engineering, math, and critical itarian crises intensify, building domestic thinking skills, will provide large advantages resiliency to shocks and systemic changes will for innovation, technological advancement, become a more important element of national economic growth, and resiliency. Regions power, as will a state’s ability and willingness with large working-age populations, including to help other countries. In coming years, the in Latin America and South Asia, will have countries and nonstate actors that are best new sources of potential economic strength able to harness and integrate material capabil- if they can improve education, skillsets, and ities with relationships, network centrality, and infrastructure; aging and contracting societies resiliency will have the most meaningful and in Europe and Asia will need to 昀椀nd ways to sustainable in昀氀uence globally. augment their workforce to avoid seeing this Material Power. Military capabilities and element of power weakened. economic size will remain the foundation of Networks and Nodes. Control of key sites state capacity and power projection, compel- of exchange, including telecommunications, ling other countries to take a state’s interests and policies into account. These two areas of 昀椀nance, data 昀氀ows, and manufacturing supply power allow states to maintain their security chains, will give countries and corporations and to amass resources that enable other the ability to gain valuable information, deny elements of power. access to rivals, and even coerce behavior. Many of these networks, which are dispropor- Technology Power. Technology, particu- tionately concentrated in the United States, larly military technologies, will continue to Europe, and China, have become entrenched A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 93 Photo / Bigstock