SPECTRUM OF CONFLICT This graphic displays increasing levels of conflict from non-violent to strategic weapons. NON-KINETIC HYBRID / CONVENTIONAL / INTERMEDIATE STRATEGIC Regular forces Information operations Irregular forces (insurgents, proxies, Embargo/blockade Cyber operations terrorists, private (non-critical military companies, Attributable weapons infrastructure) maritime militia) platforms Economic coercion Kinetic sabotage EXAMPLES Catastrophic cyber attacks (i.e. crippling Exercises/tests Cyber attacks (some OF ACTIVITIES strategic command critical infrastructure) Blackmail/bribery and control, financial systems, etc.) Electromagnetic Intelligence collection spectrum interference Nuclear weapons and other WMD Assassination the challenges for making sense of and using one participant su昀昀ers substantial casualties information. Some governments will be able or damage—are likely to escalate faster and to manipulate information against their rivals with less warning than before, compressing with more precision at scale. response times and increasing pressure to Increasing sensors and connectivity will also delegate or even automate certain decision- make militaries and governments more making. Inexpensive sensors and data analyt- vulnerable to cyber and electromagnetic ics could revolutionize real-time detection and attacks. The development of cyber weapons, processing by 2040, but many militaries most likely will still struggle to distill meanings and doctrine, and procedures in conjunction with compile options for policymakers without AI other weapons is likely to mature signi昀椀cant- and other algorithmic decisionmaking aids. ly during the next 20 years, increasing the This increased speed is likely to heighten the consequences of cyber con昀氀ict. Countries that risk of miscalculation or inadvertent escalation can disperse their networks and important to full-scale war. war昀椀ghting assets, shorten decisionmaking processes, and build in redundancy at every Additional Players level are likely to be better positioned for Some state-to-state con昀氀icts and internation- future con昀氀icts. al interventions in local con昀氀icts are likely to involve more armed proxies, private military Interstate kinetic con昀氀icts—de昀椀ned as direct companies, hackers, and terrorist organiza- engagement between the military forces of tions as governments seek to reduce risks and two or more adversaries in which at least 104 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040