Global real assets Commodity future still looks bright Key takeaways Favorable on Commodities, particularly Energy • We are favorable on Commodities Commodities have had a strong two-year run, and we expect more gains in in 2023, as the bull super-cycle is 2023 as many commodities remain structurally undersupplied. We enter 2023 still young. favorable on Commodities, and within the commodity sectors, we like Energy the best. We also continue to favor large, well-capitalized, broadly diversified • We are unfavorable on REITs Midstream Energy companies — both Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and overall due to rising interest rates C-Corporations. We remain unfavorable on Real Estate Investment Trusts and an impending recession. (REITs) due to rising interest rates and an impending recession. What it may mean for investors Structural undersupply drives bull super-cycle • We favor overweighting Commodity prices tend to move together over multiyear periods called super- Commodities in portfolios while cycles (see chart on next page). We believe a new bull super-cycle began in March underweighting REITs. 2020 (chart, solid orange line on following page). Bull super-cycles appear as strong commodity price performance, driven primarily by supply limitations. Lack of supply helped drive positive commodity returns in 2021 and 2022, and we suspect it will again in 2023. That said, commodity price gains may be back- end loaded in 2023, as we anticipate a recession in the first half. Once recession fears cool in the second half and demand picks up, we are anticipating that commodity prices will begin to rise. Oil on track for more gains Oil prices are likely on track for another positive year, driven by production challenges and strategic opportunities in large oil-producing countries. The U.S., as an example, has slowed its production growth while U.S. policy preferences have shifted toward renewable energy sources. Sensing this shift in U.S. policies, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) has made key strategic moves to minimize supplies while maximizing price. Limited global production growth will likely keep prices moving higher over the next few years. Gold under pressure While the commodity bull super-cycle has us positive on Commodities generally, we are neutral on the Precious Metals sector, which includes gold. Gold has positives, but its negatives have been directing prices for some time now. The dollar's 2022 ascent to a 20-year high was gold's most potent negative, but the 2023 flattening and then reversal lower in the dollar's value that we expect should relieve some pressure on gold. Other positives that may help in 2023 are a favorable supply/demand balance and oversold price conditions (cheap versus other commodities and negative investor sentiment). Our 2023 target range of $1,900 to $2,000 reflects in-line commodity performance plus a bit extra, while gold appears oversold. We caution investors, though, not to be too aggressive with gold until it shows better price action. 16 | 2023 Outlook Please see pages 25–27 for important definitions and risk considerations.
Wells Fargo 2023 Outlook: Recession, Recovery, and Rebound Page 15 Page 17