Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN: ESG of the Future 2025E vs. 2019 base, the sector-by-sector outlook is mixed, with 4 of the 7 key sectors projected on the decline and 3 on the rise. In particular, our estimates indicate a downward trajectory for absolute Scope 1 emissions from Steel, Mining & Metals, Oil & Gas and Utilities — down 6%, 10%, 10% and 23% by 2025E vs. 2019 base. Scope 1 emissions for the remaining 3 sectors — Airlines, Chemicals and Construction Materials — are estimated to be on the rise by 2025E vs. 2019 base. Our analysis „ even if partial „ indicates significant discrepancies in overall emissions among regions. We note absolute Scope 1 emissions from companies in the seven key sectors in Americas and Europe are estimated to follow a similar trajectory, declining by about 14%-15% by 2025E vs. 2019 (see Exhibit 8 and Exhibit 9) — despite different sector-by-sector outlooks for Chemicals, Metals & Mining and Steel. Absolute emissions in Asia Pacific are estimated to follow a different trajectory, increasing by 7% by 2025E vs. 2019 (Exhibit 10) — in particular, emissions from Chemicals, Construction Materials, Oil & Gas and Utilities are forecast on the rise among Asia Pacific companies. In our view, this stems in part from different positions on the cost abatement curve for Americas/Europe/Asia Pacific companies. While our work provides views on only a part of corporate emissions, we believe this could be extrapolated to derive trends and trajectories. We recognize that companies in our analysis accounted for only 7% of global GHG emissions and 46% of global GHG emissions from publicly traded corporates in our GS SUSTAIN database — based on 2019 data. However, the importance of the seven key sectors we selected — which accounted for almost 90% of total direct GHG emissions from corporates in 2019 — jointly with the footprint of corporates covered in our analysis where we have forward-looking GHG emissions forecasts gives us confidence that our work could provide visibility into the trajectory of emissions among the seven sectors we focus on.
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