ING global economic outlook 2023 December 2022 3 Consumer price inflation falls significantly, but remains high HICP headline inflation seems to have reached its peak in September 2022, but at a forecast of 4.8%, it's set to remain quite high throughout next year. The pipeline still contains cost price increases due to earlier peaks in purchasing prices of things like raw materials, transportation and energy. Higher labour costs will also continue to drive inflation up. Rents and the tobacco tax also contribute considerably to the prices consumers will pay in 2023. At the start of the year, a number of government support measures expire, such as the temporary reduction of the energy tax, which will have an upward effect on the inflation rate. The new energy price cap will, however, lower the inflation coming from both electricity and gas. This cap is temporary and its expiration at the start of 2024 will result in higher inflation then. And while much of the pipeline inflation should have worked through in 2024, the rate will still remain relatively higher than usual.