Driving The Next Decade of Development, State-By-State
October 2023 | A Developers' Guide to Notable Zoning Changes in Housing Development
Driving The Next Decade of Development, State-By-State A Developers' Guide to Notable Zoning Changes in Housing Development October 2023
Contents 03 Introduction 04 Why Housing Demand May Drive Development This Decade 06 State-by-State Analysis 06 The Good 06 Florida 09 Massachusetts 10 The Ugly 10 New York 12 Texas 14 Virginia 15 The Better 15 California 16 Oregon 17 Colorado 18 Washington 19 Looking Ahead 19 Georgia 20 Idaho 21 Comparative Analysis 22 Implications of Development 24 Conclusion 25 Sources
Introduction Challenges and Opportunities in Commercial Real Estate Development Commercial real estate developers are facing the most headwinds since the Great Recession, primarily due to rising construction costs from inflation and challenging capital markets that have limited their ability to access financing for projects, but not all trends are bad. Over the past two years, dramatic shifts or planned changes to regulatory environments in multiple states have made it easier to build housing - the largest commercial real estate asset class. Improving regulatory environments or potential upcoming changes that impact zoning in major states and cities coupled with population growth has the potential to unleash massive demand for new real estate development where state and municipal governments have put in place more favorable regulatory and zoning regimes. In this guide, we identify where the best opportunities exist for developers looking to put together high-performing real estate deals that can also help alleviate the housing crisis and win goodwill for the beleaguered industry. 03
Why Housing Demand May Drive Development This Decade The Housing Shortage Dilemma: Causes and Consequences Housing shortages are an urgent issue on many states’ legislative agendas, as rent and sale prices have continued to rise over the past decade. The Pew Research Center found that severe housing shortages are responsible for surging housing costs in major metropolitan hubs, with restrictive zoning laws blocking the construction of housing in high-demand, job-rich areas. As a result, rent growth reached a 16.2% year-over-year peak in February of 2022, and though growth slowed to 3.6% year-over-year in 2023, asking rents are still rising. The median rent-to-income ratio reached 30% for the first time in 2022, exacerbating the homelessness crisis many cities are already contending with. State legislatures are increasingly pursuing legislation to increase housing production, trying different strategies, from overriding local zoning restrictions for buildings with affordable units to rezoning entire states to allow for more duplexes or other less common multi-family housing. The COVID-19 pandemic has also posed new obstacles to housing production, with a shortage of labor and disruptions to the supply chain making it even more difficult for developers to hit regulatory benchmarks. Rising interest rates and economic uncertainty are also complicating housing production, making lenders more skittish about investing in new properties. Policy decisions in some states are taking these challenges into consideration, shifting regulatory mandates to take some of the strain off developers and encourage ambitious projects to move forward. 04
State legislators are looking to mitigate the obstacles to housing production with new laws and regulations. Policy changes are meant to cut red tape for housing development, shift policies toward housing types that meet demand, and promote mixed-use development near transportation that boosts climate-conscious, walkable communities. Developers looking to pursue complex residential housing will want to pay attention to shifting regulations, as many open the door to larger-scale projects and might change where your team decides to pursue a project next. 05
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State-by-State Analysis Each state is taking a unique approach to boosting housing production, and though there are some common trends among the legislation being passed, it’s important to look at each state’s policies and understand the implications for development. The Good Florida The U.S. Census Bureau’s estimates found Florida to be the fastest-growing state in the country, with the population increasing 1.9% to 22,244,823 between 2021 and 2022. In order to house its rapidly growing population, the state legislature is taking dramatic measures to jumpstart housing production. Florida’s Live Local Act., which went into effect July 1st of 2023, funds affordable housing programs in the state and closes a loophole used by lawmakers to siphon money slated for affordable housing. The main point of the legislation is to enforce something called the 40% rule, where if at least 40% of proposed units are set aside as affordable or workforce housing, local officials must approve the plans on any site zoned for commercial, industrial, and mixed-use without public hearings, a rezoning process, or land use change requirements. 06
Developers have been supportive of components of the Live Local Act, especially a provision overriding local zoning laws to allow housing to be built on any commercial lot if enough units are dedicated to affordable or workforce housing. Under the provision, it’s possible to use the maximum zoning allowed within a one-mile radius of the lot, eliminating an expensive and lengthy rezoning process and opening the door to denser development on cheaper land. The goal of the law is to expedite the bureaucratic processes that are currently slowing down the development of critical housing and change the range of housing available to people living in Florida. Another goal of the legislation will be an expansion of affordable housing out of city downtowns and an ability for affordable housing developers to compete with the luxury buildings that have dominated the state’s real estate market over the last decade. 07
However, the law isn’t without its detractors, with the main critics being urban planners who have invested time and effort into the creation of zoning laws and are worried about seeing their work trampled by the new law. In addition, laws circumventing public input are likely to receive pushback, especially from residential NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) factions of certain communities. For example, the Riviera Beach City Council rejected a zoning change in June of 2023 that would’ve allowed 268 housing units to be built on a defunct golf course. D.R. Horton, the developer behind the project, informed the city council the company would use the Live Local law’s new provisions unless the project was reconsidered. Now the City Council will be brought back to the table, and likely have their hands tied to approve some version of the developer’s plan. Officials remain confident the Live Local law, despite these disagreements on the local level is a proactive and necessary step toward jumpstarting development projects and addressing the affordable housing crisis. Most of the new development spurred by the legislation is expected to result in an expansion of housing in areas zoned as industrial instead of commercial. Key Facts Most Impact Approach Status High-density development Legislation passed in urban, suburban, and and in effect rural areas Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $383,000 up 14.6% or 2,736,877 people 08
Massachusetts In January of 2021, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker passed a new economic development law to legalize zoning for multifamily development, forcing suburbs to legalize thousands of new apartments near MBTA subway stops. The guideline would require most cities and towns in eastern Massachusetts to include a multifamily district of at least 50 acres near MBTA stations. In other words, the state’s guidelines would require bigger cities and towns, and towns with prime access to transit, to zone for higher levels of capacity. Under the policy, 17 cities or towns in the state near subway transportation, including major suburbs like Wellesley and Weston that are on the MBTA’s D line branch, will be required to legalize zoning for multifamily homes equal or greater to the percentage of the town’s existing properties. Cities or towns with bus line access will need to create a zoning capacity for multi-family homes up to 20 percent of the town's existing number of homes, and the 79 other municipalities adjacent to communities with MBTA access will need to meet the law’s minimum threshold by creating zoning districts at least 50 acres in size and allow for at least 750 multi-family homes. It’s too early to tell how much the new housing policy translates into actual construction, but the law is a first step toward building transit-oriented, walkable communities with more multi-family housing. Developers will find significant new opportunities for high-density development throughout the state in transit-oriented and transit-adjacent communities. Key Facts Most Impact Approach Status High-density residential Legislation passed development near and in effect public transit Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $558,000 up 7.37% or 482,288 people 09
The Ugly New York New York’s housing crisis is emblematic of the country’s greater shortage, with restrictive local regulations and extensive permitting processes making building difficult, especially for homes with lower costs, such as apartments, houses on small lots, and accessory dwelling units (ADUs) in garages or backyards. Legislators proposed the New York Housing Compact to increase housing supply and combat exclusionary zoning in early 2023. The law aimed to produce 800,000 new homes over the next decade, incentivize affordable housing production, promote transit-oriented development, align new growth with the state's climate goals, and fast-track the appeals process for affordable housing in non-compliant localities. The program would also have given developers more time to comply with the tax exemption known as 421a, as pandemic-related construction slowdowns have hindered the ability to finish projects in the exemption’s timeline. The New York Housing Compact failed to pass into legislation, with disagreements among political parties and resistance from suburban legislators in communities that favor single-family homes undermining the process. Supporters of the legislation also felt the boldness of the proposal required more time to educate communities before being put to a vote. Lawmakers in the state are still hoping to return to the table with a revised proposal, but in the meantime, the state’s affordability issues are still a major concern, and the regulatory hurdles developers face in the state will persist. Legislative failures in New York had immediate repercussions for developers, who were supposed to see rezoning and increased housing production potential before 421a, a key tax break, expired. Ever since 421a expired in June, filings for multifamily housing took a dive and some developers have offloaded projects out of fear of missing the construction deadlines necessary to receive the tax break. Developers must have foundation footings in ground by June of 2022 and be completed by June 15, 2026 to qualify for the break. Governor Kathy Hochul proposed adding four more years to the deadline, but lawmakers would only support an extension for certain projects. 10
Mayor Eric Adams also outlined a “City of Yes” plan in June of 2022 to rework New York City’s zoning policy to support small businesses, create affordable housing, and promote sustainability. The plan includes three major zoning policy changes — Zoning for Economic Opportunity, Zoning for Housing Opportunity, and Zoning for Zero Carbon — which would aim to increase development by cutting red tape and centering equitable planning. Efforts would make key changes to zoning policy, such as making it easier to create smaller units in certain developments and eliminating parking requirements. Proposals for “City of Yes” are still undergoing a public hearing, review, and approval process before going into effect. Developers should see New York’s legislative woes as an example of the importance of stakeholder buy-in. Resistance to high-density building on the community level can sometimes stem from a lack of information or preconceived notions about the development process. Hosting community meetings to hear out local concerns and answer any questions often helps overcome regulatory or public opinion hurdles. In turn, local residents are able to see developers as members of the community and better understand how the buildings will benefit the area. Key Facts Status Most Impact Approach Legislation failed High-density housing across the state Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $411,000 up 4.1% or 823,000 people 11
Texas Lawmakers in Texas attempted to pass a variety of bills to address the state housing shortage in 2023, as census data indicates the state’s population is outpacing home construction. In May, the bills faced opposition from legislators of both parties as well as community groups and failed to pass into law. The bills attempted to rezone parts of Texas amid a growing policy consensus that regulations need to change to boost housing production in the state. The two most significant bills, which were among the most drastic measures being promoted by housing advocates, included legislation that would have drastically reduced the amount of land houses needed to be built on. Opponents argued the bill would create more expensive buildings to subsidize the lack of land costs, resulting in higher rent or sale prices. The other bill targeted compatibility requirements in metro areas like Austin that restrict building height based on how close it is to a single-family home, but this also failed to pass. Tensions around housing in the state signal a more difficult market for developers to pursue projects in. Even smaller housing propositions, such as a bill that loosened restrictions on ADUs or “granny flats,” failed to pass into law. NIMBY coalitions and some factions of the state’s political parties argued that even such a law took away cities' rights to control land use and that residential zoning decisions should be made by local representatives. 12
Developers should see New York’s legislative woes as an example of the importance of stakeholder buy-in. Resistance to high-density building on the community level can sometimes stem from a lack of information or preconceived notions about the development process. Hosting community meetings to hear out local concerns and answer any questions often helps overcome regulatory or public opinion hurdles. In turn, local residents are able to see developers as members of the community and better understand how the buildings will benefit the area. Key Facts Status Most Impact Approach Legislation failed State and Local Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $294,000 up 15.9% or 3,999,944 people 13
Virginia Efforts to address housing shortages and encourage development in Virginia have been contentious and have not yielded many legislative changes. The discussion around accessory dwelling units (ADUs or granny flats) exemplifies the main disagreements around housing in the state. In February, a Virginia House panel killed a statewide ADU bill. In the meantime, cities and municipalities have made individual decisions around the units. Richmond City Council members were poised to pass a new ordinance in the city that would reduce costs or delays for building ADUs in single-family neighborhoods. In spite of some communities being more hospitable to new housing in the state, other land use changes might be of note to developers. The Virginia Supreme Court made several recent decisions that expanded what kind of alleged harm can form the basis for neighbors to challenge land use approvals. The decisions mean more cases are likely to be heard in front of the court from plaintiffs arguing speculative or more general harm from new development. The shift is likely to make developers working in Virginia more vulnerable to litigation, which can potentially slow down or disrupt project timelines. Key Facts Most Impact Approach Status Suburban areas with Legislation in single-family homes debate or failed Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $361,000 up 7.9% or 630,369 people 14
The Better California California is also among the states passing unique housing legislation to try and cut some of the red tape around development. Gavin Newsom signed laws SB 6 and AB 2011 to allow residential development on sites currently zoned for commercial use. AB2011 will let developers build housing on some commercial land without asking permission from local governments, while SB 6 lets developers build housing on some commercial land, but the projects will still have to go through an environmental review process. Local government officials have pushed back on the law, arguing that it undermines community preferences and that stores generate more tax revenue than housing. Housing advocates and state government officials view the law as a win, saying much of the retail space often sits empty for years, and changing these buildings over to housing will help the state build the necessary 310,000 units over the next two and a half years it needs to keep up with demand. Either way, the law passed and went into effect in July of 2023. State officials have already announced further plans to try and accelerate housing, funding another round of the California Housing Accelerator, which provides funding to projects stalled by unable to get tax credits. The project will get 2,755 new housing units underway with a focus on affordable housing for low-income residents. Developers will want to keep an eye on both of these initiatives, as zoning changes and increased funding may increase opportunities for residential or mixed-use development throughout the state. Key Facts Status Most Impact Approach Legislation passed State and Local and in effect Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $728,000 up 6.1% or 2,284,267 people 15
Oregon Oregon’s state legislature passed what is essentially a ban on single-family home zoning in 2019, implementing a measure that requires cities with more than 10,000 people to allow duplexes to be built in areas zoned for single-family homes. The law goes a step further in the Portland metro area, requiring cities and counties to allow the building of housing such as quadplexes and “cottage clusters” of homes, or small homes built around the same yard, to be permitted. The law is one of the first statewide measures to greenlight the type of housing known as “missing middle” housing, which is buildings between single-family homes and mid or high-rise apartments. Buildings such as quadplexes, three-flats, or courtyard apartments used to be more commonplace, but many communities made them illegal under single-family zoning policy, a decision that has come under new scrutiny amid housing shortages, racial equity movements, and climate concerns. The legislation was a step toward increasing housing production, and in February of 2023, state legislators are trying to further speed up housing construction by simplifying local rules. The proposal wants to annually estimate the amount of new housing needed in cities with populations of 10,000 or more and would hold cities accountable if they don’t take steps to cut the red tape and boost development. Key Facts Status Most Impact Approach Legislation passed State and Local and in effect Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $485,000 up 10.6% or 406,182 people 16
Colorado Proposition 123 passed in Colorado in November of 2022 and requires state legislators to dedicate $300 million of the state’s budget annually to affordable housing development. Supporters of the proposition say the law will create 170,000 houses and rental units over the next few decades, addressing the state’s estimated 225,000 home shortage. The measure didn’t have organized opposition but did face pushback from some groups because it potentially eats into tax refunds guaranteed to residents under a state constitutional amendment known as the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR). Still, developers looking to build housing in the state may find avenues to do so by pursuing projects with affordable units. Housing has been a hot-button issue in Denver, Colorado, over the past couple of years. A 155-acre lot known as the Park Hill project, a defunct golf course rezoned for development, has been a topic of much debate. Denver paid the Park Hill golf course owners to put a conservation easement, an agreement that restricts future development, on the land in 1997. Westside Investment Partners bought the land and came to an agreed proposal with the community to build 2,500 new units on the land, including affordable and senior housing, and reserve two-thirds of the property as park space. But on April 4, voters declined to lift the easement to allow the redevelopment, potentially signifying ongoing resistance to major housing development in the state. Key Facts Status Most Impact Approach Some legislation High-density residential passed, some failed development Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $540,000 up 14.8% or 774,518 people 17
Washington Governor Jay Inslee passed 10 housing bills into law in May of 2023, with much of the legislature designed to help boost the supply of housing amid soaring prices. Many of the bills are designed with housing production in mind, including House Bill 1337, which makes it possible to permit and construct more accessory dwelling units (ADUs), and House Bill 1110, which requires cities to create more types of housing, such as duplexes and triplexes. The Department of Commerce provides cities with technical assistance to implement new middle housing requirements and move projects more quickly through permitting procedures. The flurry of bills passed in Washington is good news for developers, opening the door for more high-density buildings and loosening zoning regulations for all projects. Legislators in the state seem particularly keen to boost “middle housing,” or the type of project that falls between single-family homes and large apartment buildings. However, middle housing may be more desirable in rural or suburban areas, and these policies do not necessarily mean there isn’t an opportunity for large residential projects in metropolitan areas. The Washington Department of Commerce estimates the state needs to build up to 1 million more units of housing over the next 20 years, and the bills already passed indicate the state is eager to tackle this concern aggressively with developer collaboration. Key Facts Status Most Impact Approach Legislation passed Rural and suburban and in effect development Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $563,000 up 14.6% or 980,741 people 18
Looking Ahead Georgia Georgia lawmaker Dale Washburn introduced two bills designed to address the state’s affordable housing shortages in February. House Bill 417 would prevent counties or municipalities from regulating a long list of building design elements, from the style of porches to the number of rooms. The bill doesn’t affect historical buildings or the state’s minimum building standards. For developers, this law opens the door for new projects in the state and makes more asset classes viable. The second bill, House Bill 514, would bar local governments from indefinitely extending moratoriums on new housing construction. Local moratoriums or zoning holds have held back new development in communities across the state in the past. Powder Springs, a suburban city in the Atlanta metro, issued a 6-month hold on new residential zonings in 2022. Similarly, the Roswell City Council voted to remove multi-family zoning districts and prevent developers from submitting rezoning applications for standalone apartments. Representatives say the two bills are meant to cut bureaucratic red tape, boost private sector innovation, and increase access to affordable housing for Georgians. The bills are receiving bipartisan support, suggesting the legislation could be viable, though local regulatory groups have voiced opposition. If passed into law, the second bill would be good news for developers, preventing projects from getting stalled out in the regulatory process. Key Facts Status Most Impact Approach Legislation in debate Multi-family housing throughout the state Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $306,000 up 10.6% or 1,024,255 people 19
Idaho City officials in Boise, Idaho are poised to pass a major zoning overhaul that would combat sprawl in the rapidly growing state and could impact housing growth for decades. The proposed legislative changes, a 600-page document called the Modern Zoning Code, would be the state’s biggest overhaul in nearly five decades. If passed, the new zoning code will allow for small apartment buildings to be built more easily in residential areas, and transit corridors will be targeted for mixed-use development. The law is intended to streamline the development process by removing public hearings for some applications and not notifying nearby residents about all projects. The changes are intended to make building easier for developers, and legislators want, in particular, to encourage denser, more urban, and mixed-use projects. Neighborhood groups have voiced some opposition to the law, saying it doesn’t take their opinions into enough consideration. Some residents also expressed concern that developers wouldn’t take advantage of the law's affordable housing incentive structure. In general, however, a large number of residents seem in support of the city building upward instead of outward. Developers should see a lot of potential to pursue high-density residential developments in the state, especially as the population continues to grow. Key Facts Most Impact Approach Status High-density residential Legislation housing in urban and recently passed suburban areas Avg. House Price 2023 Population Growth From 2010-2020 $435,000 up 7.3% or 271,524 people 20
Comparative Analysis Repurposing Underutilized Spaces and Regulatory Challenges Several trends have emerged in the laws being proposed and passed across the country. The first is a desire to circumvent the single-family zoning policies that bar high-density development. The single-family zoning policy, which has been around since 1916, is particularly vexing for developers pursuing high-density projects and for communities trying to expand housing quickly. The other trend is state and local governments looking for creative solutions to address housing shortages, whether it’s cutting the red tape for development around transit hubs or putting restrictions on single-family buildings. COVID-19 has also impacted housing policy on the state level. Buildings that are underutilized, such as retail or office space, are being rezoned for conversion into housing. In addition, some laws are being recalibrated to help developers meet certain regulatory benchmarks, as doing so has become more difficult with labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions precipitated by the pandemic. Balancing the local community’s expectations with state-wide housing initiatives appears to be the biggest obstacle to getting legislation passed and new construction underway. Building positive relationships with stakeholders on both the state and local levels can help developers looking to pursue a residential project in line with the new regulations. In addition, an ability to communicate the positive impact and necessity of these buildings to community stakeholders ahead of legislative changes has proven necessary. The impact and efficacy of these policies will take a long time to fully analyze, but for the most part, it will depend on the ambition of developers working in the region. Opening the door to housing production is just one step to boosting housing production, and the success will depend on how many firms have the vision and ambition to rise to the occasion. Zoning and regulatory changes are a step toward addressing housing shortages, but the building and construction process for major residential projects is complex. At the end of the day, it’s the developers who need to take advantage of these regulatory changes, and the legislative action is designed to facilitate this kind of business in individual states. 21
Implications for Development Leveraging Modern Real Estate Development Software for Success Housing policy change poses both opportunities and obstacles for your development firm. Looking at the housing production policy state-by-state can help you decide where to focus your time and investment. The legislation being passed is indicative of a larger trend toward high-density, mixed-use buildings that provide the walkable communities that younger demographics of residents are seeking and are overall more sustainable and climate-friendly. The good news for developers and investors is that mixed-use buildings also mitigate financial risk by diversifying a project’s income streams; if a building can generate returns from residential, commercial, or office space, one asset class can be in decline, but the project will remain profitable. 22
Buildings going up after this legislation passed are already showing bias toward this type of development. For example, Depot II is a mixed-use development in Beverly, Massachusetts, made possible by the state’s new zoning regulations and will provide 106 housing units and 9,0000 feet of residential space. Developers will be preserving the historic Casa de Luca building as part of the project, representing compromises made with local communities as part of the construction process. On the other hand, regulatory mandates can pose certain obstacles, such as adhering to affordable housing mandates and overcoming community NIMBY-ism. When you’re building a project with zoning requirements for affordable housing, budget considerations must be made to accommodate additional units and features those units require. NIMBY-ism is when community members object to new construction and voice those concerns through the local legislature. In many cases, federal or state legislation is designed to circumvent these interventions, but taking the time to communicate a project’s value on the community level may still be a best practice. Modern real estate development software can play a major role for any team trying to budget for a residential project following state and local regulatory changes. Northspyre’s platform allows you to forecast budgets accurately, allowing you to use data gathered from $125 billion in real estate development projects to understand what a project should cost based on location, asset class, and other market factors. Using Deeplook in Northspyre’s Early Budget Planner will allow you to start any project with confidence, empowering you to be one of the intrepid developers pursuing building residential projects that may be the first of their kind in the state. 23
Conclusion Navigating the Future The trends in housing production movements seen across states, such as rezoned commercial space or red-tape cut for high-density developments, may be mandated at the federal level. State laws, such as the one passed in Oregon, are being modeled on the federal level as strategies for addressing housing shortages across the country. Federal agencies have earmarked funds for states to work on passing similar rezoning legislation moving forward. Keeping an eye on this shifting policy and the kind of properties, it favors is a good practice for developers working in any market. Legislation housing production passing across the United States overall presents more opportunities for real estate developers. Zoning and regulatory changes often permit ambitious, high-density residential projects to move forward. Visionary developers may also see opportunities in rezoned commercial or industrial sites, many of which have existing infrastructure that has gone underutilized for years. Building partnerships with state and local stakeholders and investing time in communicating the value a project will bring to respective communities can help you overcome some of the resistance that can emerge on the local level. Policy designed to increase multi-family homes and repurpose underutilized infrastructure into new housing is likely to increase in popularity as housing shortages persist. Economic uncertainty may make developers less eager to pursue large housing projects, as some housing initiatives have failed to result in buyers or renters in a down-market. Budgeting accurately and weighing potential risks in the pre-development stage of a project can allow your team to better understand the potential risks and rewards of your proposed project and move forward with confidence. Discover How Northspyre Keeps Budgets On Track from Pre-Development to Stabilization Book a Demo 24
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