2023 ECONOMIC AND CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Exhibit 2: Consensus forecasts of lower US inflation have been inaccurate Consensus oreas­s %YoY %YoY 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 9 9 9 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 y n y p n y p n a p n y p n y p a a e a a e a e a a e a a e J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S Headline Consumer rie nde C Core C Source: Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Data as of September 30, 2022. In Exhibit 2, the solid lines show actual inflation, while the The bottom line is that it will likely take two to three years— dotted lines show the consensus forecasts at any given and more Fed hikes—to bring inflation under control. That point of time. When inflation started rising in April of last being said, the Fed’s 2022 rate hikes are already showing year, most, including the Federal Reserve, thought it would signs of working, with various inflation measures moderating be transitory. With each subsequent increase in the CPI, the near year-end. The fact that inflation is coming down before consensus said the same thing—This is the peak, it’s going we see any deterioration in the labor market is very important to come down from this point forth—but the consensus has for markets and for the economic outlook. With less pressure been wrong. This gives us good reason to be cautious about on the Fed to forcefully fight inflation going forward, we think current forecasts as well. the likelihood of a soft landing in 2023 is real. The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the author(s) and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information. 03