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Allianz Research sh a spl n U on on s n oh J e s i n e D y b o t o h P Global Outlook Since our last quarterly economic update, the (after growth of +2.5% in 2022), followed by a rebound deteriorating energy crisis and tough policy choices to below-potential growth of +1.5% in 2024 (Figure 1). have confirmed our forecast of slowing growth, higher Europe will muddle through the ongoing energy crisis, inflation and rising interest rates. While inflationary while the US recovery is constrained by a cautious policy pressures remain stronger than expected, real activity mix. Among emerging markets, growth is expected to has been more resilient than expected in both the remain stable in 2023 at +3.3% – mainly supported by the US and the Europe due to a combination of stronger cautious reopening of China, while most other emerging consumption and scaled-up fiscal support. countries are likely to slow down due to both external and domestic headwinds. A rebound to +4.3% is expected Global growth: Still headed towards a recession in 2024, supported by the policy pivot as well as the After a tumultuous year, we anticipate lackluster growth recovery of Chinese demand. in 2023, followed by differing recovery paths across countries in 2024 (Table 1). Global growth is likely to slow to +1.4% in 2023 (-0.1pp downside revision) and to recover modestly to +2.8% in 2024, with significant divergence across countries. Advanced economies will register a shallow recession of -0.1% in 2023 4

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