Allianz Research Table 3: Public debt sustainability risk score (25 most vulnerable EMDEs, out of 102 markets scored, as of December 2022) Debt Shock Foreign Effective Public Debt (due to Exchange- Interest Rate Interest Country Sustainability Covid-19 denominat Maturing Fiscal Interest (interest pay- Rate - Rank (from high risk Risk Score Total Public Debt and war in ed Public Public Balance Payments ments in % of Growth to low risk) (0 = high risk; (% of GDP) Ukraine; Debt Debt (% of GDP) (% of fiscal public debt at Differential 100 = low risk) increase in (% of total (% of GDP) revenues) the end of (%) public debt- public previous year) to-GDP ratio) debt) max(2022;2023) 2019 -> 2022 2022 2023-2024 2022-2023 2023 2023 2023 1 Zambia 0.0 115 15 73 8.9 -7.9 35 8.5 4.8 2 Sri Lanka 6.7 131 48 36 9.3 -9.9 79 9.1 6.7 3 Malawi 6.8 71 22 54 8.6 -7.7 36 9.8 14.9 4 Ghana 10.8 85 22 55 3.7 -8.2 50 9.9 17.7 5 El Salvador 11.9 89 14 64 4.0 -6.6 19 6.7 2.2 6 Ukraine 13.4 90 38 70 4.8 -17.0 11 8.7 13.7 7 Egypt 13.8 95 11 26 13.9 -7.4 43 11.2 10.8 8 Kenya 14.4 70 12 57 4.5 -6.1 25 7.3 5.0 9 Laos 19.5 109 45 86 0.3 -5.0 22 3.4 10.8 10 Costa Rica 20.4 67 10 42 9.4 -4.1 35 8.5 2.0 11 Jordan 20.8 94 15 45 10.3 -6.4 16 4.8 -0.9 12 Tunisia 20.8 85 16 67 4.9 -9.0 11 3.8 4.4 13 South Africa 22.3 73 14 33 2.9 -7.8 19 7.9 5.3 14 Bahrain 23.6 120 17 63 11.0 1.3 21 4.0 0.6 15 Bangladesh 24.0 29 29 75 1.1 -5.9 27 7.9 2.7 16 Uganda 28.2 53 15 70 2.3 -4.8 20 6.7 -1.7 17 Brazil 30.9 93 4 6 7.6 -7.5 22 8.1 -0.6 18 Pakistan 30.9 78 0 34 3.3 -5.0 40 8.1 3.9 19 Lebanon 32.3 175 2 38 52.8 -3.2 33 3.6 2.1 20 Turkey 34.4 44 9 55 2.5 -5.2 11 12.1 1.8 21 India 34.7 94 14 6 2.3 -9.4 29 7.5 -2.7 22 Moldova 36.3 45 11 59 2.2 -6.0 6 5.4 3.4 23 Dominican Republic 37.7 61 7 77 6.5 -2.7 22 6.0 -2.8 24 Romania 38.2 55 18 51 4.2 -6.3 6 4.1 0.3 25 Argentina 38.7 81 -10 68 4.9 -4.6 6 4.6 2.5 Source: Allianz Research. Note: For the calculation of the PDSRS, each of the indicators was rescaled from 0 to 100, with 0 denoting the highest risk and 100 the lowest (not visible in the columns 4-11, which show the actual values). Then the PDSRS was calculated as the average of the indicators, thus also ranging between 0 and 100. 14