CIO Insights Resilience versus recession Figure 4: Consumer price inflation (%) Source: Deutsche Bank AG, Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Data as of November 17, 2022. YoY average 2022 2023 Consensus 2023 (BBG*) U.S. U.S. U.S. 8.2 4.1 4.0 Eurozone Eurozone Eurozone 8.4 6.0 5.5 Germany Germany Germany 8.9 7.0 6.2 Japan Japan Japan 2.3 1.6 1.5 China China China 2.0 2.3 2.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Note: *Bloomberg Inflation in 2023 could also be higher than expected due to the impact of high energy costs on the prices of other goods and therefore on core inflation. In Germany, headline inflation will likely fall as a result of the gas price cap coming into effect at the beginning of the year, but core inflation will be stoked further by government stimulus. Overall, the world’s main central banks are therefore likely to keep their monetary policy relatively tight initially. Current capital market pricing reflects this. But there remains a risk that inflation will go higher than expected, requiring central banks to intervene more strongly. While inflation seems to have already peaked in the U.S., it might not peak in Germany and the Eurozone until February or March 2023. Inflation: lower and higher Market and portfolio implications: o Current inflation expectations largely factored into market prices o Uncertainty remains regarding further development of inflation o Increase in long-term inflation target should be considered when building portfolios In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was produced in December 2022. 8