respondents to rank the top 昀椀ve risks among into account any mechanism in place to prevent 14 pre-selected risks in order of how severe the risk from occurring or prepare to mitigate they believe their impact will be on a global its impact. The respondent was provided 10 level in 2023. The 昀椀nal rank is the average rank randomly selected global risks, and was asked estimated by the respondents, weighted by to rate current effectiveness based on 昀椀ve the number of respondents who selected the options: (1) Highly ineffective, (2) Ineffective, (3) particular risk. Options included: Continued Indeterminate effectiveness, (4) Effective, and (5) waves of COVID-19, Cost-of-living crisis, Highly effective. A simple tally of the number of Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, times a risk was identi昀椀ed on each level of the Debt crisis, Deployment of chemical and 昀椀ve-point effectiveness scale was calculated on biological weapons on a catastrophic scale, this basis. The result is illustrated in Figure 4.1. Deployment of nuclear weapons on a catastrophic scale, Disruptions in global Respondents were then asked to identify supply chains for non-food goods, Energy up to three stakeholders who can effectively supply crisis, Failure to set and meet manage the most severe risks identi昀椀ed in national net-zero targets, Food supply crisis, Section 3. Respondents could choose among Rising in昀氀ation, Structural failures in health the following eight entities: local government, systems, Weakening of human rights, and national government, bilateral, multi-country, Weaponization of economic policy such as regional, international organization, businesses, sanctions and trade controls. To ensure legibility, public-private cooperation. A simple tally of the the names of some of the global risks have number of times a stakeholder was identi昀椀ed as been abbreviated in the 昀椀gures. The portion of effective was calculated on this basis. The result the full name used in the abbreviation is in bold. is illustrated in Figure 4.1. The result is illustrated in Figure 1.1. 6. Future Outlook for the World captured the 3. Global Severity 2 Years and 10 Years asked respondents’ outlook on global cooperation respondents to estimate the likely impact over the next 10 years. Respondents were (severity) for each of the 32 global risks, on a asked to select from among three options: 1-7 scale [1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity], (1) Broad-base convergence to a multilateral over both a two-year and 10-year period. rules-based order, (2) Fractures between Respondents were asked to evaluate the competing economies which consolidate into severity, considering the impact on populations, blocs and new structures for cooperation, GDP or environmental resources on a global and (3) Wide-scale division of economies into scale. They were also allowed to nominate competing blocks with divergent standards, any other risk considered missing from the 32 values and paradigms with limited collaboration. global risks. A simple average based on the A simple tally for each of the three options was scores selected was calculated. The results are calculated. illustrated in Figure 1.2 and Figure 2.1. Completion thresholds 4. Global Risks Consequences seeks to A total of 1,316 responses to the GRPS were understand of the potential consequences of received. From these, 1,249 were kept, using as a risks, to create a network map of the global threshold at least one non-demographic answer. risk landscape. Respondents were provided 10 randomly selected global risks (from the full • Outlook for the World: 1,244 respondents list of 32 global risks), and were then asked selected at least one of the short-term and long- to select up to 昀椀ve global risks (from the full term world outlook options. list) likely to be triggered by each of the 10 risks materializing. In visual results, “Nodes: – Short-term outlook for the world: 1,233 Risk in昀氀uence” is based on a simple tally of all bidirectional relationships identi昀椀ed by – Long-term outlook for the world: 1,231 respondents. “Edges: Relative in昀氀uence” is based on a simple tally of the number of times • Currently Manifesting Risks: 1,180 the risk was identi昀椀ed as a consequence. respondents ranked at least one manifesting risk. However, visual do not show all connections: weaker relationships identi昀椀ed by less than 25% • Global Severity 2 Years and 10 Years: 1,091 of respondents were not included as edges. respondents evaluated the severity of at least "Employment crises" was not offered as a one risk in one time frame. randomly selected risk, and is shown only as a consequence. “Prolonged economic downturn” – Short-term severity: 1,086 was not offered as a consequence, and is only shown as a cause. – Long-term severity: 999 5. Risk Preparedness and Governance • Global Risks Consequences: 877 respondents asked respondents to indicate the current paired at least one materializing risk with its effectiveness of risk management across consequence. economies and multiple stakeholders, taking Global Risks Report 2023 77