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1.3 Looking ahead The way risks play out over the next two years are embedding structural changes to the economic has rami昀椀cations for the decade to come. Nearly and geopolitical landscape that will accelerate other one in 昀椀ve respondents to the GRPS felt optimistic global threats faced over the next 10 years. And about the outlook for the world in the longer term, as the con昀氀uence of current crises distracts focus predicting limited volatility with relative – and and resources from risks arising over the medium potentially renewed – stability over the next 10 years to longer-term horizon, we may face increasing (Figure 1.10). Yet, over half anticipated progressive burdens on natural and human ecosystems. Some tipping points and persistent crises leading to of these risks are close to a tipping point, but catastrophic outcomes over the next 10 years, there is a window to shaping a more secure future. or consistent volatility and divergent trajectories. Understanding them is vital. Notably, younger age groups were more hopeful for the future: one in three respondents under the age The next chapter considers the potential global of 40 shifted to a neutral or positive stance over the shocks we are heading towards over the next longer time frame. decade, highlighting worrying developments emerging from the crises of today that are eroding Shocks of recent years – most notably, the war in the resilience and stability of the global system. Ukraine and COVID-19 pandemic – have re昀氀ected It highlights a series of such emergent risks – the and accelerated an epochal change to the global shocks of tomorrow – that can be reduced through order. Risks that are more severe in the short term collective attention and action today. FIGURE 1.10 Short- and long-term global outlook "Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the short-term (2 years) and longer-term (10 years)? 2% 2% 2 years 13% 69% 14% 10 years 20% 34% 26% 11% 9% Progressive tipping points and persistent crises leading to catastrophic outcomes Consistently volatile across economies and industries with multiple shocks accentuating divergent trajectories Slightly volatile with occasional localised surprises Limited volatility with relative stability Renewed stability with a revival of global resilience Source World Economic Forum, Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023. Global Risks Report 2023 25

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