January 2023 Global Risks Report 2023 Preface Saadia Zahidi Managing Director Last year’s Global Risks Report warned that a Yet much-needed attention and resources are being divergent economic recovery from the COVID-19 diverted from newly emerging or rapidly accelerating pandemic risked deepening divisions at a time risks to natural ecosystems, human health, security, when collaboration was urgently required to address digital rights and economic stability that could looming global challenges. Yet despite hard-learned become crises and catastrophes in the next decade. lessons around the interdependence of global risks, A low-growth, low-investment and low-cooperation few would have anticipated the extent of instability era further undermines resilience and the ability to that would soon unfold, this time driven by a new war manage future shocks. In recognition of growing in Europe. complexity and uncertainty, the report also explores connections between these risks. The analysis The health and economic aftereffects of the pandemic focuses on a potential "polycrisis", relating to have quickly spiraled into compounding crises. shortages in natural resources such as food, water, Carbon emissions have climbed, as the post- and metals and minerals, illustrating the associated pandemic global economy 昀椀red back up. Food and socioeconomic and environmental fall-out through a energy have become weaponized by the war in set of potential futures. Ukraine, sending in昀氀ation soaring to levels not seen in decades, globalizing a cost-of-living crisis and fueling The report is underpinned by our annual Global social unrest. The resulting shift in monetary policy Risks Perception Survey, which brings together marks the end of an economic era de昀椀ned by easy leading insights from over 1,200 experts across the access to cheap debt and will have vast rami昀椀cations World Economic Forum’s diverse network. It draws for governments, companies and individuals, widening on the collective intelligence of the world’s foremost inequality within and between countries. risk experts, including the Global Risks Advisory Board and the Chief Risk Of昀椀cers Community, as As the con昀氀ict between Russia and Ukraine well as thematic experts from academia, business, approaches one year, economies and societies government, the international community and will not easily rebound from continued shocks. In civil society. The report has also bene昀椀ted greatly this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey, more from the expertise of the World Economic Forum’s than four in 昀椀ve respondents anticipated consistent platforms, which work daily to drive tangible, volatility over the next two years. The persistence system-positive change for the long term. We are of these crises is already reshaping the world that deeply grateful to our long-standing partners in the we live in, ushering in economic and technological report’s development: Marsh McLennan and Zurich fragmentation. A continued push for national resilience Insurance Group. in strategic sectors will come at a cost – one that only a few economies can bear. Geopolitical dynamics The 2023 edition of the Global Risks Report are also creating signi昀椀cant headwinds for global highlights the multiple areas where the world is cooperation, which often acts as a guardrail to these at a critical in昀氀ection point. It is a call to action, to global risks. collectively prepare for the next crisis the world may face and, in doing so, shape a pathway to a more The 18th edition of the Global Risks Report considers stable, resilient world. this backdrop of simmering geopolitical tensions and con昀氀uence of socioeconomic risks. It identi昀椀es the most severe perceived risks to economies and societies over the next two years. The world's collective focus is being channeled into the “survival” of today’s crises: cost of living, social and political polarization, food and energy supplies, tepid growth, and geopolitical confrontation, among others. Global Risks Report 2023 4