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From Wait But Why: not that we’ll have AGI), and a safe guess (the earliest year by which they can say with 90% certainty we’ll have AGI). Gathered together as In 2013, Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom one data set, here were the results: conducted a survey that asked hundreds of AI experts at a series of conferences the Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022 following question: “For the purposes of this Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040 Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075 question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption. By what year would you see a (10%/50%/90%) So the median participant thinks it’s more likely probability for such Human Level Machine than not that we’ll have AGI 25 years from now. Intelligence to exist?” It asked them to name an The 90% median answer of 2075 means that optimistic year (one in which they believe there’s if you’re a teenager right now, the median a 10% chance we’ll have AGI), a realistic guess respondent, along with over half of the group of AI experts, is almost certain AGI will happen within (a year they believe there’s a 50% chance of AGI— i.e. after that year they think it’s more likely than your lifetime. 101

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