Global Economic Outlook – September 2022 Contents The global outlook: High inflation takes its toll 04 Countries and regions in focus: • United States: Economy poised to stall 07 • Canada: On path for a mild, short-lived recession amid global uncertainty 10 • Brazil: Government balance creates risks 13 • Mexico: Stable but surrounded by risks 15 • ASEAN: Global headwinds weighing on trade in the region 17 • China: Covid, property market and policy supports 20 • Japan: Loose policy keeping the yen down, adding to inflation 23 • India: Driving growth on the back of inflation control 26 • Australia: Mounting headwinds set to weigh on growth 28 • Germany: Europe’s biggest economy threatened by recession 31 • Austria: Strong energy headwinds – and fiscal support 33 • France: A costly shield from inflation 35 • Italy: Misty outlook amid mounting headwinds 37 • The Netherlands: Inflationary squeeze weighs on economic growth 39 • Ireland: Recent momentum, stumbles against headwinds 41 • Switzerland: Resilient, but not immune to shocks 43 • UK: Economy marred by stagflation 45 • Central and Eastern Europe: Not a uniform story 48 • South Africa: A growth recession as inflation rises 51 • Nigeria: Sustaining positive growth amid low oil production and rising inflation 53 Appendix: KPMG country forecasts 55 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 3