Global Economic Outlook – September 2022 The global outlook: High inflation takes its toll Clouds are once again gathering, marring the outlook Chart 1: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic for the global economy. As inflation accelerates, putting and the speed of recovery have been uneven pressure on households’ finances and businesses’ margins, and causing central banks to tighten monetary policy 15% aggressively, recession is once again on the horizon in 10% many economies. 9 Q4 5% 1 It was not long ago that the Covid-19 pandemic brought a ve to 200 big part of the economy to a halt, and while the recovery -5% has been relatively swift once restrictions were lifted, its strength has varied across countries (Chart 1). -10% -15% With all the new challenges so far this year, it is easy to Changes in GDP relati forget that the virus has not yet disappeared. We could see -20% a rise in infections over the colder months, including more -25% disruptions to production in China due to the zero-Covid India China Australia US Italy France UK Japan Germany policy. The impact on labor supply and the health service COVID trough Latest is also likely to linger, causing a tighter labor market and additional burden on public finances in the medium term. Source: National statistics bodies, KPMG analysis. © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 4